|
Indian HNI growth (past 5 years) | |||
| Year of report | India | Asia-Pacific | World |
| 2005 | 70,000 | 2.3 mn | 8.3 mn |
| 2006 | 83,000 | 2.4 mn | 8.7 mn |
| 2007 | 1,00,015 | 2.6 mn | 9.5 mn |
| 2008 | 1,23,000 | 2.8 mn | 10.1 mn |
| 2009 | 84,000 | 2.4 mn | 8.6 mn |
| 2010 | 1,26,700 | 3 mn | 10 mn |
| Source: Capgemini, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management | |||
New Rupee Symbol - Start of new Internet era for Indian currency
How many of you aware new Indian rupee symbol? It may be a news to many of you but I been following up the past few months since our other bloggers Srikant blogged about the competition for the symbol selection. I thought of posting about when its finalized and they did it at last. As of Jul 16th, they finalized the symbol and congress rubber stamped it. Here is the approved symbol,

The symbol combines the Roman letter ‘R’ and its equivalent in Devnagari—a script which is employed in Hindi and in some other North Indian languages that were derived from Sanskrit. The symbol, which replaces the oft-used shortened form of rupee such as ‘Rs’ or ‘INR’ (Indian Rupees), will take about two years to be fully implemented considering the time needed to update various software and computer keyboards.
But adopting the new symbol, rupee has thus joined the club of currencies such as UK’s pound sterling, US’ dollar and the Japanese Yen that are identified by a symbol. With this, the Indian rupee is expected to be seen as a distinct entity from its namesakes in the neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, where either rupee or rupaiah are in vogue.
For the government, having a symbol for the domestic currency has been a matter of prestige for the fastest growing free market democracy in the world. The symbol, selected by the finance ministry from over 3,000 entries and approved by the Cabinet, is designed by D Udaya Kumar, a post-graduate from IIT, who has been newly appointed as an assistant professor in the design department of IIT-Guwahati.
The government will try to adopt it within six months in the country and globally within 18 to 24 months, information and broadcasting minister Ambika Soni told reporters here after the Cabinet meeting.
“The symbol for the Rupee would lend a distinctive character and identity to the currency and further highlight the strength and robustness of the Indian economy,” the government said in a statement. The symbol would be incorporated in the ‘unicode standard’, which is a character coding system to facilitate worldwide communication of written texts in diverse languages and technical disciplines.
The government, the software industry body Nasscom and the Manufacturers’ Association for Information Technology would take all steps to ensure that computer keyboards allow the use of the symbol, the government said here.
You can read more about the selection process, controversy surrounded it and much more also at Track.in. Are you also wondering how to type the new rupee symbol in the keyword, we would have to figure by google research.. Let me know what do you think about the new symbol. Are you excited about it?
Sources: financialexpress.com
India doubles millionaires
High Networth Individuals(HNI) or Millionaire lists always grab my attention any time of the year. Because I am interested to see who made to the list and get inspired so I can make to the list one day.
I came across this interesting article from Trak.in about the India's Millionaires count doubling in the recent year. A developing nation where millions of people still live under poverty line but can still produce more HNI every year only proves the point that Rich are getting rich more and Poor are getting more poorer. The gap is widening and there is no solution on the sight to bridge it. Check out the article.
India Doubles its Millionaires!
According to the World Wealth Report recently released by Capgemini and Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, most countries in the world have increased their HNI (High Net-Worth Individuals) count. While, India has more than doubled it – maximum compared to any other country in the world.
In 08-09, India had 84,000 HNI’s which grew by 50.9% to take to the number to 1,26,700 HNI Indians !

In Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong saw the maximum rise with 105% growth in number of HNIs followed by India (50.9%) and China (31%).
I think one of the main reasons for such kind of growth in India is appreciation of stock market in India. The market capitalization increased 103 per cent in 2009, compared to a dip of 64 per cent in 2008.
Here are some of the highlights of the Report
- The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009.
- The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) returned to 10 million in 2009, increasing by 17.1% over 2008.
- HNWI financial wealth increased 18.9% from 2008 levels to $39 trillion. After losing 24.0% in 2008, Ultra-HNWIs saw wealth rebound 21.5% in 2009.Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by 21.5% in 2009.
- In terms of the total Global HNWI population remains highly concentrated with the U.S, Japan and Germany accounting for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population, down slightly from 2008.
- The Asia-Pacific HNWI population rose 25.8% overall to 3.0 million, catching up with Europe for the first time.
- The Asia-Pacific region was home to eight of the world’s ten fastest-growing HNWI populations, led by Hong Kong (104.4%) and India (50.9%).
- Asia-Pacific HNWI wealth surged 30.9% to $9.7 trillion, more than erasing 2008 losses and surpassing the $9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs in 2009.
- In India, real GDP growth increased to 6.8% in 2009 from 6.1% in 2008.
- Market capitalization in India and China almost doubled
India's economy to grow by 8.5% in 2010/11: PM
As I been posting some encouraging news about Indian economy which are published in Financial express and Times of India. Two weeks ago, PM had long interview with reporters after completing one year of congress government in their second term. He was answering questions about current economical condition and future growth. It might be too late to publish this article but never late than ever. But I feel obligated to always let my blog readers informed and updated on economical conditions in India and around world.
NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday said the economy is expected to grow by 8.5 per cent this fiscal and the country was capable of achieving 10 per cent expansion in the medium term.
The forecast comes on top of an estimated 7.2 per cent growth in 2009-10, the year that saw India weather the effects of the global economic crisis.
"We need a rapidly growing economy to generate productive employment and also resources to finance our ambitious social and economic agenda," Singh said at a national press conference here to mark completion of one year of UPA-II in office.
Growth had slipped to 6.5 per cent in 2008-09 at the height of the economic crisis triggered by collapse of financial institutions in the West.
"Our medium term target is to achieve a growth rate of 10 per cent per annum. I am convinced that given our savings and investment rates, this is an achievable target," Singh, regarded as the architect of India's financial reforms, said.
India's savings and investment rate is nearly 35 per cent of GDP, next only to China's 49 per cent.
"However, its (high growth) achievement will require determined efforts to increase investment in social and economic infrastructure, enhance productivity in agriculture and give a fresh impetus to the manufacturing sector," the Prime Minister said.
"Our annual rate had averaged 9 per cent for four years before the crisis. It reduced to 6.5 per cent in 2008-09, but recovered to 7.2 per cent in 2009-10. We expect 8.5 per cent growth in this financial year," he said, noting that the first concern in the wake of the financial crisis was to protect the economy from the global slowdown.
This had prompted the government to deviate from fiscal prudence by way of stimulus measures (involving high borrowings to step up public spending and foregoing of revenue to boost manufacturing), leading to fiscal deficit shooting to over 6 per cent of GDP - a broad measure of a country's economic wealth.
In the budget for 2010-11, the government partially withdrew the stimulus, saying economic recovery was strong.
"The record of our first year is a record of reasonable achievement," Singh said.
Inflation to moderate to 5-6% by December: PM
"Prices continue to be a matter of concern ... it is affecting the country's masses ... but I believe by December we can bring it down to 5 to 6 per cent," he told reporters at his national press conference here to mark the completion of one year UPA-II in office.
Singh said the government has been monitoring inflation and has been taking measures to check the rising prices, particularly food products hit by poor monsoons last year.
"But for this (high inflation), international financial crisis and high prices of petroleum prices in global markets are to blame. Besides, droughts and floods in some parts of the country last year also affected our economy as whole," Singh said.
Monsoon accounts for a bulk of rains India receives and nearly 66 per cent of the country's agriculture sector depends on rains for cultivation.
High food and fuel prices fuelled overall inflation to over 10 per cent in February and provisional numbers for April put it at 9.59 per cent.
"As a result of steps we have taken, there are signs of prices showing a moderating trend," Singh said.
"We are closely monitoring the situation and together with state governments take all steps to bring down prices and protect the vulnerable section of our society from the impact of high prices," Singh added.
Food inflation, which had shot above 20 per cent in December has since moderated but is still above 16 per cent.
India Inc is on the hiring strike...
I can almost hear you all saying, "here you go again another news on India Inc.,". Come on. If it's a good news, lets cherish after all we are making progress compared to other countries. Even our PM acknowledged and hope to get to 8.5% GDP by end of this year. Below article was published in the middle of last month and gives a quick update about the employment opportunities and how companies are trying to hire back as the economic is picking up. Read on...
Article from Times of India - Finance
Riding on improving business confidence, Corporate India's online hiring activity rose for the fifth month in a row, leading recruitment services provider Monster India said.
The Monster Employment Index, a monthly gauge based on a comprehensive review of employer job opportunities from a large selection of online job sites, climbed by 7% to 125 in April, from 117 in March.
"The April rise in Monster Employment Index India is a positive sign as employers continue to expand hiring efforts at the beginning of the second quarter," Monster Worldwide managing director (India, Middle East and Southeast Asia) Sanjay Modi told reporters here.
With this, the online employment availability in healthcare, bio technology, life science and pharmaceuticals witnessed its largest monthly rise. Overall, job opportunities rose in 18 of the 27 industry sectors tracked in the survey.
Healthcare led the rise with a 29-point gain in April, indicating a relatively high level of online recruiting in support of scientific research and development activity.
The banking, finance and IT sectors also edged higher in April. Consumer-driven sectors, such as production and manufacturing, automotive, home appliances and real estate, witnessed strong growth over a three-month period.
In the IT industry, the online job demand increased by 51% from January levels. Meanwhile, education was the only industry to grow month-over-month, over a six-month period.
"With other indicators, such as business confidence, improving and most industries and occupational categories in the index registering recent positive trends, we hope to see continued improvement in the future," Modi added.
Online job demand rose at all the 13 cities monitored by the index in April, with Kochi, Coimbatore and Ahmedabad registering the largest jumps.
Among major metropolitan areas, brisk hiring activity was witnessed in Mumbai.
Delhi-NCR and Bangalore grew by 5% over March levels, though hiring activity in Bangalore was relatively restrained compared to the previous month, the study said.
During April, online recruitment activity rose in 13 of the 14 occupational groups tracked, with online job demand for healthcare and engineering/production professionals witnessing the greatest monthly increase.
ONE YEAR OF UPA-II: A financial analysis and future outlook
India's UPA government just completed it's first year in the second tenure as central goverance. Party is celebrating his successful year as it sailed through the recession without major problems. Even a recent NDA poll/survey suggested that UPA would still win with more seats if there is an election today. That clearly shows the strong support from the people on the handling of government headed by Mr. Manmohan Singh.
I found this article which summarizes the facts and figures by analysing the past financial performance in detail. Happy reading...
Sailing through downturn
Anto Antony
Posted online: May 21, 2010 at 0134 hrs
Posted by: Financialexpress.com
Performance of the UPA-II that navigated the country with minimal damage through minefields of global recession, possible deflationary spiral and worst monsoon rains in 37 years would have got a high rating, but for the high food inflation and stalled financial sector reforms.
Policymakers and independent analysts awaiting the economic growth data of March quarter before making any conclusive remarks about the strength of the recovery unanimously agree that deft handling of fiscal and monetary levers boosted the flagging economy.
Country’s chief statistician Pronab Sen maintains that traction of recovery can be assessed only after looking at fourth quarter GDP data for last fiscal. He argues that manufacturing segments’ record performance in recent months could be on account of inventory build-up and the capex projects coming back on stream rather than new investments. “We have to factor in the impact of the Euro zone crisis on India, if any,” said Sen adding “if risk aversion remains high globally, the government needs to take a relook at the policy measures needed to achieve 9% growth”. With one of the widest fiscal gaps, the government now has little headroom for announcing another round of stimulus measures if the sovereign default crisis spreads to larger economies.
The fiscal boost given by the government to the flagging economy last year had pushed the fiscal gap to a 16-year-high of 6.8%, which rating agencies flagged as unsustainable. “If three legs of Greece are chopped off so is one of ours” said DK Joshi, principal economist at credit ratings agency Crisil. He said the pain of fiscal deficit is felt by India too though not as much as Greece.
With the windfall gains from auction of 3G airwaves set to help Pranab Mukherjee’s thrust on fiscal consolidation, deficit for the year is likely to stay below the 5.5% target even if the crude prices shoot up and disinvestment target is not met.
With foreign and domestic investors buying into the India growth story under UPA-II, the benchmark equity indices saw the sharpest rally in 100 days after formation of any central government in independent India . The buoyant markets helped the government in achieving record disinvestment proceeds of Rs 23,500 crore. While retail participation in the stake sale in government-owned companies were dismal, it helped in overriding the deficit scenario. The recent pullout of foreign investors in light of the risk aversion may exacerbate the current account deficit which is now 4%, the highest in country’s history.
Independent economists point out the high inflationary scenario is the single macro theme that can derail the UPA-II’s projection. “In the long run, if the prices keep going up all the high growth projections will go awry,” said Jehangir Aziz, chief economist at financial services firm JP Morgan Chase. Aziz advocates a sharp hike in the policy rates will keep growth on track in the long term although it will shave off couple of points from growth projections in the short term.
Unlike its earliest avatar, UPA-II had to bear the burnt of global turmoil right from Day One. While it is entering the second year, dark clouds of sovereign default crisis, inflationary tendencies that refuse to subside and chances of another disrupted monsoon rain is looming large in Asia’s third largest economies horizon.
India Inc numbers are on par compared to other economy...
Check out this another encouraging news about India economy which is starting to chung along inspite of all the hustle and bustle around EuroZone.
Article by Financial Express.com on 5/5/2010
A month into the earnings season, India Inc seems to have more or less met Street expectations for the March 2010 quarter. While top line growth for a sample of 800 companies rose by 41% year-on-year, which is way above the growth in the two previous quarters, the operating profit margin for the sample has remained more or less flat at 15.5% compared with the December 2009 quarter, thanks to rise in raw material costs.
Ambit Capital CEO Andrew Holland said, “The results have been a mixed bag with no major surprises either on the upside or on the downside.” Manishi Raychaudhuri, MD&head of research at BNP Paribas Securities said, “The auto space has done well with the exception of Maruti but one sector that has really disappointed us is the MNC engineering space which includes companies such as Siemens, ABB and Areva.”
Sanjeev Prasad, executive director, Kotak Institutional Equities, points out that there have been some instances where companies have reported profits that were higher than expected. “There are various reasons for this such as falling other expenditure, higher other income of some tax sops,” Prasad said.
One reason for the strong top line growth has been rising commodity prices as also better volumes. Also, India Inc was still coming out of the downturn in the March 2009 quarter and therefore, the base wasn’t too high. Observes Rajat Rajgarhia, head of research at Motilal Oswal, “The strong year-on-year growth has happened because of the low base of the March 2009 quarter and also the clearly strong growth momentum in domestic businesses.” While there haven’t been any big surprises yet, the two biggest disappointments so far, analysts say, have been Reliance Industries and Maruti Suzuki.
The Street is also concerned about margins going ahead. As Ambit’s Holland points out, “Operating margins are clearly to come under pressure because of higher cost of raw materials and that’s likely to be an ongoing theme.” However, BNP Paribas’ Raychaudhuri believes that commodity prices may actually be softening. “There are some initial signs of this happening and if it does, it would take away a lot of the risk,” he said. Commdodities firms, have really benefited from the sharp jump in prices of steel, aluminium,rubber and zinc and they are also selling much larger volumes as automobile firms buy more steel and aluminium.
So it’s not surprising that JSW Steel has turned in a net profit of Rs 611 crore in the three months to March 2010 compared with a small loss in the March 2009 quarter. Lower interest costs too have helped increase the bottom line of companies, though interest is not really a very significant cost. Analysts point out that while most companies have recovered from the downturn, there have been results that came in somewhat below expectations. At consumer products firm Marico for instance, the top line rose just 6.4% year-on-year in the three months to March 2010 because realisations for some products have come off. Competitive pressures also appear to have impacted Maruti Suzuki whose earnings before interest tax and depreciation (Ebitda) margins of 12.2% came in well below the Street’s expectations of closer to 14.5%, thanks to the higher cost per vehicle.
India Inc. is churning and Recovery is in progress...
A quick update about the Indian economy which was published in Financeexpress last week. Check it out, it seems India Inc is on track to recover faster than expected.
The early corporate results for the quarter-ended March, and indeed for the entire financial year of 2009-10, suggest that India Inc is on a firm revival path and the results are in fact better than what analysts had expected. An analysis by The Financial Express of some 83 companies that have announced their results shows that both net sales and net profit of the sample is up by 27% year-on-year, driven mainly by stronger volume growth and better price realisation. The rebound in sales growth points to improving private demand, which bodes well for the overall growth.
The rise in commodity prices are getting reflected in higher total expenses at 28% for the sample analysed. Despite the currency headwinds, IT companies, led by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys Technologies and Wipro reported stronger revenue growth, added new clients and expanded business in new geographies. The strong quarter of broad-based and volume-led growth of software companies indicates that the global business environment is returning to normal and companies will be increasingly looking at outsourcing to save costs and shore up their bottom line.
In the banking space, though the consensus for the quarter has been of lower earnings, Axis Bank turned in earnings that were 10% higher than the Street’s estimates on the back of robust net interest income, which was up 41% and lower-than-expected provisioning and operating expenses. As more banks report their results in the next few weeks, analysts expect more such surprises that will have good tidings for corporate India. Concerns still remain on the telecom sector, which is expected to report a laggard quarter. This sector will likely need the arrival of 3G to revive its fortunes.
Going ahead, the moderate 25 basis points increase in repo, reverse repo and cash reserve ratio will not have much impact, at least in the near term, on the borrowing costs of companies as banks have not made any changes in their lending rates. The infrastructure sector led by steel and cement is seeing increasing capacity utilisation and the markets will take cue on the order book position of the companies as they report their financial results. While the support of the expansionary government expenditure for the economic recovery after the global recession has now started to moderate significantly, private consumption demand will now replace it to provide stronger momentum in growth. Investment demand has also picked up across all sectors and it now needs to accelerate for the growth momentum to sustain.
India to be fastest growing economy by 2018: Economist
Global economy is slowly getting back to it's original rhythm. I am really cautious in saying that statement. I didn't say it's back to normal because it's going to take few more more years for the normacy. But it's reviving back in many Asian countries except Europe and US are still struggling with the lot of economical issue.
As per some analyst statement last year, they thought US should get back faster than other countries because it faced the recession earlier than other countries and should start recovery first. Looks like they are wrong as other countries are seeing the recovery way faster than US because they only faced minor effects of recession. Below is an article from economist which encouraging about India. Read on.
Source: TimesofIndia.com
India is the second largest growing economy after China, but it will overtake its neighbouring country by 2018, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research arm of London-based Economist magazine , said Tuesday.
"We forecast that India will overtake China as the fastest growing major economy by 2018. We expect India's growth on an average of eight percent in the next five years," EIU senior analyst Anjalika Bardalai told reporters on the sidelines of 14th Business Roundtable here.
She said the Indian economy would grow at 6.8 percent during the current fiscal, at 7.7 percent in 2010-11, and 8 percent the year later.
But the statistical arm of the Indian government, the Central Statistical Organisation, has projected the economy to grow by 7.2 percent in the current fiscal.
"Our growth projection is based on expenditures in the economy and is not based on factor cost as done by the Indian government," Bardalai explained.
The Indian government measures growth on the basis of factor cost. Factor cost is the cost of factors of production used to produce final goods and services.
India's GDP during the three quarters in the current fiscal grew at 6.1 percent, 7.9 percent and 6 percent. While during 2008-09 it grew at 6.7 percent and in 2007-08 at 9.1 percent.
"The GDP will not return back to 9 percent and more as it was during 2005-08. Also the monetary pressure may not go down as expected," The Economist executive editor Daniel Franklin said.
Driven by increasing food prices, India's annual rate of inflation, based on the wholesale price index, rose to 9.89 percent in February from 8.56 percent in the previous month, according to an official data revealed Monday.
It also predicted inflow of investments through Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) at $75 billion by 2014.
What's happening in India Series - 37% population is still under poverty line
I came across this report recently from my Kiva network and thought would pass it on to you all if you haven't read it.
A committee headed by an expert economist released the latest statistics on poverty in India. As per the report, 37% of the population of India is under the poverty line.
Story by: TimesofIndia.com
Date: Dec 15, 2009
NEW DELHI: The Suresh Tendulkar committee report revising upwards poverty estimates across the country may further strain government finances with many of the states already demanding special status to address the issue and an enhanced allocation under many of the pro-poor schemes.
The committee, in its report submitted to the Planning Commission last week, had estimated that 37% of India’s population is under the poverty line, while the proportion of the poor is almost 42% in rural areas — sharp increases from official poverty estimates of 27.5% for all of India and 28.3% for rural areas.
The committee has changed the method of estimating poverty to a broad-based consumption basket that includes education and health.
More than half of the rural population of states like Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are still living under abject poverty, not able to meet their basic necessities of food, health and education, according to the revised estimates of the expert group headed by former chairman of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Suresh Tendulkar. The new figures are not strictly comparable with the earlier estimates, because the Tendulkar panel has significantly changed the method of estimating poverty — from one notionally based on calorific intake to a more broad-based consumption basket that includes education and health.
Nevertheless, the revelation that poverty is higher than it was earlier thought to be may force the government to increase funding for social and rural development schemes such as the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, Indira Awas Yojana and the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, say economists.
Tendulkar himself told TOI that though this was not the mandate of the committee, as an economist he thinks government should put a lot of money into education and health, particularly considering the demographic profile of the country with a predominantly young population.
Restart to booming Indian Economy with Foreign Investments - An update
I planned to write a post talking about recent economic developments in India. When I came across this interesting article, I decided to post since it's very descriptive shedding light, touching different aspects of India's growth. The article author talks about, what is current happening in India after recession, how we were able to get back so quickly and what force drives Indian economy. Check it out and share your feedback.
India finds itself awash in foreign investment
14 Oct 2009, 1713 hrs IST, New York Times
Six months ago, it looked as if India was in for a bumpy recession. Factories were laying off workers and construction sites were grinding to a halt as foreign investment slowed to a trickle.
But in the last few months India has hit a gusher, as investors around the world have turned away from the dollar, the global refuge during the crisis, and rediscovered their optimism in the world economy and India’s place in it.
There is palpable optimism here. Major stock indexes have roughly doubled from their March lows. Companies are advertising initial public offerings on television. And articles about bonuses and corporate expansion plans have started replacing news about layoffs and deferred projects on the front pages of newspapers.
Nearly $7 billion more foreign direct investment flowed into India than left the country in the second quarter, from April through June, nearly twice as much as in the previous six months combined.
Including cash invested in the stock and bond markets, India received about $15 billion in foreign investment, the most it has received in any quarter except the last three months of 2007, according to Macquarie Securities.
If the current surge continues – and skeptics doubt that it can – the Indian economy could start growing at 8 to 9 percent a year as early as 2010, far sooner than forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and many independent analysts.
"Clearly after the big shock of last year, things are back on track," said Surjit S. Bhalla, who runs Oxus Research and Investments, based in New Delhi. "People are seeing the recovery to be lot more robust than what many of the naysayers are saying."
While many say the good times are here to stay, some analysts worry that the renewed ebullience will be fleeting if global financial markets take another turn down.
Confidence in India’s potential could also falter if the government does not address some long-standing problems, namely, improved infrastructure, investment in education and economic reforms, as it has promised to do to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.
Another big concern is that the foreign money might re-inflate bubbles in stock and real estate markets. Indian stocks are less than 20 percent shy of their 2008 peak, even though corporate profits and the economy as a whole are growing more slowly now.
"Because we are a fairly large attractor of capital, the possibilities of bubbles building up in sectors like real estate are very real," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank, who is nonetheless upbeat about the economy. "It has clearly happened in China and there is some of that sort of problem here, as well."
For a country that quarantined its economy from the rest of the world for much of the last 60 years, India has increasingly relied on foreign investment in recent years. It has helped bridge the gap between domestic savings and the growing capital needs of the private sector and the government, which is borrowing money to pay for welfare programs and subsidies.
In India’s fiscal year, which ended in March, growth slowed to 6.7 percent, from 9 percent a year earlier, in part because of lower foreign cash flows. Most analysts estimate the economy will grow more than 6 percent this year, but some like Bhalla say growth will be as high as 8 percent.
Rising foreign investment should help offset some of the economic impact of erratic monsoon rains. The agricultural sector makes up about 17 percent of India’s economy but sustains more than half its population.
India’s economy lacks some of the handicaps present in other countries. For instance, domestic demand never collapsed to the extent it did in the United States, and yet consumer spending is picking up now. Car sales were up 13 percent in the five months that ended in August, compared with the same period last year. Builders say sales of affordable apartments – priced from $10,000 to $30,000 – are up, too. Even retailers, who were forced to close hundreds of stores last year after overexpanding, are talking about opening new outlets.
Some Western companies are eager to get a piece of this market. Last month, Ford Motor said it would build and sell a new hatchback here. McDonald’s announced that it would open 120 more restaurants. And Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price, according to local news reports, is in talks to buy a stake in an Indian mutual fund firm. T. Rowe Price declined to comment.
At the same time, thanks to strong overseas demand for Indian stocks and bonds, companies here are raising billions of dollars. In a recent initial public offering for Oil India, a government-owned company, demand outstripped available shares by 31 times.
"There is a large amount of liquidity in the world," said A. Murugappan, executive director at Icici Securities. The money is flowing here, because "people see that India and China are the two growth areas."
Still, the rising flow of foreign funds poses challenges.
India’s currency has appreciated 11 percent since early March, to 46.13 rupees to the dollar, because of rising demand for rupees and the broad decline in the dollar. That will make Indian garment and jewelry exports less competitive on the world market at a time when those industries are still recovering.
"That is a cause of worry," Vasant Mehta, chairman of India’s Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council, said about the appreciating rupee. "Profit margins are being squeezed, and in such a period we cannot expect to raise prices."
The governor of the Reserve Bank of India recently said that to control inflation, his central bank might have to raise interest rates before developed countries, where rates are at historic lows. But he said that doing so could encourage overseas investors to move even more money into India, driving the rupee even higher.





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